In the most favorable scenario for the development of renewables, EKON Strategy Consulting predicts that renewables will cover 69.4% of electricity demand in Spain in 2030, only 4.6% behind the 74% target set by the government in the draft NECP.
According to EKON, in order to achieve the NECP targets, less additional capacity will be required versus the NECP targets. According to EKON´s market modelling results, Spain reaches 69.4% with 10.5 GW and 24.3 GW of new wind and PV capacity respectively, while the NECP is targeting the development of an additional 27 GW of wind and 32 GW of PV.
The NECP has not taken into account that there will be technological advances in PV and wind power, the yields and the number of equivalent hours of operation will increase achieving greater output. These are the main conclusions drawn from the presentation that Kim Keats, Director of Market Modeling of the Spanish consultancy EKON Strategy Consulting, made about the results of the 2020Q2 price projection and capacity expansion model during the Solar & Wind SWES Congress 2019 which took place at the Eurostars Suites Mirasierra Hotel in Madrid this on June 13 2019.
Another conclusion from EKON´s model is that, unlike the results observed from other market consultants, the massive influx of renewable capacity, and in particular PV, while it will cause a reduction in the average prices obtained by this technology, will not cause a price collapse.