“Spain´s National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) has not taken into account that with the expected technological improvements in PV and wind energy yields, the number of equivalent hours of operation will increase so greater production can be achieved with less installed capacity“, according to a representative from EKON Strategy Consulting. Thus, the Spanish consultancy estimates that the country could achieve 69.4% of renewable electricity in 2030 with 10.5 GW of new wind power and 24.3 GW of new PV power, «whilst the NECP sets itself the objective of deploying 27 and 32 GW respectively.
Kim Keats, director of Market Modeling at the Spanish consultancy EKON Strategy Consulting, presented the results of EKON’s study at the Solar + Wind SWES 2019 Congress, which took place on June 13 in Madrid. The EKON study also highlights that the increase in renewable deployment does not have to cause a collapse in market prices, «as some fear and others predict»; and warns that “NECP does not seem to take into account future technological improvements in wind and PV: the production for each megawatt installed will be higher than before.“
Another conclusion of the EKON model is that, unlike the results observed by others, the massive influx of renewable capacity, and in particular photovoltaic, will cause a reduction in the average prices obtained by this technology, but it will not cause a collapse in prices, as some industry players fear.
Kim Keats also argues that having reached grid-parity, auctions are not necessary and that market forces should drive new deployment. Irrespective of whether the government decides to use auctions, or green certificates, it needs to ensure that the measure is not discriminatory (new assets versus developing assets). Discriminatory measures by the goverment could lead to a “missing money” problema.